3RD UPDATE, Friday 9:54 PM: Word of mouth on Kung Fu Panda 3 is just as strong as its previous installment with the DreamWorks Animation sequel earning an A CinemaScore tonight. Projecting off of East Coast cash registers which recently closed, non-20th Century Fox estimates have KFP3 at an opening day of $11.3M and an opening weekend of $41M at 3,955 theaters. While that’s less than the $47.7M 3-day of KFP2, keep in mind it’s winter and only 4% of all K-12 schools are off, per Rentrak. And it’s still too early to call the weekend on KFP3. During this time of year, animated films make their bread off of Saturday and Sunday matinees. One industry calculation projects a 60% hike on Saturday for KFP3 or $18.1M. All of this could spike by late Saturday night. PLF, 3D pricing are also working in KFP3‘s favor this weekend. KFP3 carries an estimated production cost of $120M-$140M. KFP3 drew 56%, as moms drove the kids to the cinema with 58% of the crowd under 25. Both that demo and the under 18ers gave KFP3 an A+. Per PostTrak, 72% of the crowd said they’d recommend the DWA film to a friend.20th Century Fox also has the spoil of claiming the No. 2 spot as its New Regency title The Revenant stays strong with an industry estimated $3.27M Friday and sixth weekend of $11.6M, down just 27%. Cume by Sunday should be $137.4M As the northeastern seaboard thaws, many distributors are expecting decent holds for last weekend’s films as audiences are hankering to head back to the cinema. This is true especially with last weekend’s crop — The Boy, The 5th Wave and Dirty Grandpa — registering second weekend declines between -38% and -43%.
Disney’s The Finest Hours is looking to open with $10.5M in third at 3,143 venues after a $3.5M Friday. Not the best of starts for a movie that carries an estimated budget between $70M-$80M. These seafaring films always have the tide against them during production, hence their lofty budgets. Despite the fact that it’s a smart ensemble with Chris Pine, Casey Affleck, Eric Bana and Ben Foster, none of them individually has the marquee power yet of a Channing Tatum or a Leonardo DiCaprio; stars who could sail this pic to a taller wave. Another obstacle for Finest Hours per RelishMix: None of the stars navigates social media. Facebook conversation has been dominated by two things: the red carpet premiere and the Q&A with the cast. That said #Pinenuts has taken over the Q&A with all kinds of questions for Pine, some about Finest Hours, but most related to his favorites, from wine to vacation spots and Star Trek. On the upside, Finest Hours is coming in with an A- CinemaScore tonight, so this ship may yet steer to better grosses.Disney also owns the No. 4 film, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which is still looking at a double digit weekend with an estimated $10.3M at 2,556 theaters for a running cume in its seventh sesh of $894.9M. While some projected a $1B stateside end cume for Episode VII, others saw a slowdown at this point in time as the film nears $900M. There have been rumors that A Rogue One: Star Wars Story trailer will be paired with Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War on May 6. However, if Disney wants to push Force Awakens to the highest gross possible, they might consider dropping the Rogue One trailer earlier, specifically attached to Force Awakens. All the more reason to send fans back to the theater for the umpteenth time.
Open Road/IM Global’s Fifty Shades of Black is more like Fifty Shades of Red with the parody film coming in far below its $9M-$10M projection for a $6.3M weekend at 2,075 theaters. The film was financed for $5M before P&A by IM Global.The Haunted House films earned B- grades, but tonight CinemaScore crowds likedFSOB less with a nasty C.
Weinstein Co.’s service deal of the Natalie Portman western Jane Got a Gun is coming in lower than expected with $250K off 1,210 theaters for a FSS of $750K. The pic was first announced at the 2012 Cannes film festival, originally from a Black List script by Brian Duffield with Lynne Ramsay attached to direct. Following her departure from the film on its first day of production, Warrior director Gavin O’Connor took over the film. Portman, who lives in Paris, made her way over to the states for the NYC premiere with co-star Joel Edgerton and made pit stops at Good Morning America and The Tonight Show. The pic’s financier Straight Up Films is handling Jane‘s P&A. Duly noted: that 38% Rotten Tomatoes score for Jane is based on 13 reviews. The New York Times, Entertainment Weekly and The New Yorker are among the few who have seen it.
Other notables include A24’s Room at 795 locations pushing its total cume to $9.6M by weekend’s end thanks to its Oscar nominations for best picture, director, adapted screenplay and actress Brie Larson. That’s an 85% uptick in its total gross since Oscar nom day. Of all the films to receive a surge from their Oscar noms, many projected Room to go boom since it was still in limited release.
Lazer Team in play at 25 locations is seeing an estimated Friday of $45K and a FSS of $144K. Rooster Teeth in connection with a crowd sourcing company Tugg crowed that the film racked up $1M in pre-sales with screenings also in Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the U.K.
On social, RelishMix measured Kung Fu Panda 3’s SMU at 374M. Broken out that’s 112M on Facebook, 8.2M on Twitter, 3.7M on Instagram and a huge 250M total YouTube views. Many views on YouTube are holdover clips driving impressions. However, the biggest bounce in views has come from Dreamworks TV’s YouTube channel with 28.5M views for KFP3. By comparison, DWA’s Home had an SMU of 304M on its release date of March 27, 2015. That figure included Rhianna and Jennifer Lopez’s social following plus their Vevo music video views. KFP3’s social activity on par or slightly ahead of Home, which opened at $52.1M. The EOR earned, owned ratio of reposting videos is 9:1, which is very good for a family/animated film. KFP3‘s cast has a combined social media pull of 89.4M comprised of Jackie Chan, Bryan Cranston, Seth Rogen, Jack Black and Lucy Liu.The top 15 films for the weekend of Jan. 29-31, 2016:
1). Kung Fu Panda 3 (DWA/FOX), 3,955 theaters / $11.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $41.1M / Wk 1
2). The Revenant (FOX), 3,330 theaters (-381) / $3.27M Fri. / 3-day cume: $11.6M (-27%) / Total cume: $137.4M / Wk 6
3). The Finest Hours (DIS), 3,143 theaters / $3.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $10.5M / Wk 1
4). Star Wars: The Force Awakens (DIS), 2,556 theaters (-809) / $2.7M Fri. / 3-day cume: $10.3M (-27%)/ Total cume: $894.9M / Wk 7
5). Ride Along 2 (UNI), 2,412 theaters (-780) / $2.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $8M (-36%) / Total cume: $70.5M / Wk 3
6). The Boy (STX), 2,671 theaters (0)/ $2.2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.7M(-38%)/Total cume: $20.4M/ Wk 2
7). The 5th Wave (SONY), 2,908 theaters (0) / $1.88MFri./ 3-day cume: $6.4M(-38%) /Total cume: $19.59M/ Wk 2
8). Dirty Grandpa (LGF), 2,912 theaters (0)/ $2.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.4M(-43%)/Total cume:$21.6M /Wk 2
9). Fifty Shades of Black (OR/IMG), 2,075 theaters / $2.2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.3M / Wk 1
10.) 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi (PAR), 2,803 theaters (-114) / $1.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5.8M (-35%) / Total cume: $42.4M / Wk 3
11). Daddy’s Home (PAR), 1,718 theaters (-1,071) / $812K Fri. / 3-day cume: $3M(-39%)/ Total cume: $143M / Wk 6
12). The Big Short (PAR), 983 theaters (-368) / $790K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.6M(-19%)/ Total cume: $60.5M / Wk 8
13). Brooklyn (FSL), 748 theaters (-214) / $447K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.5M(-14%)/ Total cume: $30.2M / Wk 13
14). Room (A24), 795 theaters (-67) / $294K Fri. / 3-day cume: $978K (-27%)/ Total cume: $9.6M / Wk 16
15). Spotlight (OR), 715 theaters (-315) / $274K Fri. / 3-day cume: $953K (-25%)/ Total cume: $34.5M / Wk 13
Notables:
Jane Got a Gun (TWC), 1,210 theaters / $250K Fri. / 3-day cume: $750K/ Wk 1
Lazer Team (ROO), 25 theaters / $45K Fri. / 3-day cume: $144K/ Wk 1
2nd UPDATE, Friday 12:10PM: DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3 via 20th Century Fox is on its way to a $13M opening day and a weekend that’s in the $44M-$45M range. That’s not too far from the opening of Kung Fu Panda 2 which played over Memorial Day weekend 2011. That film also posted a Friday that was $13.1M (if you add in its $5.8M Thursday then you get to $18.9M) and its 3-day take was $47.7M. Again, matinees will determine if this threequel cracks $50M. KFP2 improved upon KFP with moviegoers earning an A Cinemascore to the first title’s A-. KFP2 in relation to its opening posted a 3.5 multiple in the end of $165.2M. KFP3 with critics is earning a 79% fresh score which files behind KFP (87%) and KFP2 (81%).
Among the new titles, Disney’s Finest Hours is looking at a $4.5M Friday and an opening weekend in the low teens. Critics are giving the sea ship disaster film a 60% fresh Rotten Tomatoes grade. Open Road/IM Global’s Fifty Shades of Black looks to whip $4M today with a $10M three-day. The tweeds can’t stand it with an 11% Rotten Tomatoes score…but then again, when did they ever appreciate satire or gross out? 20th Century Fox/New Regency’s The Revenant is also looking to gross $10M for the weekend, putting its cume through six weekends at $135.8M by Sunday.
Weinstein Co.’s release of Natalie Portman’s western Jane Got a Gun from director Gavin O’Connor is playing at 1,210 theaters and is looking at a $400K Friday and a FSS of $1.3M per rival distrib sources. Currently, Jane got a 40% Rotten Tomatoes score. More updates and analysis later this evening.
1st UPDATE, Friday 8:10AM: DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3 from 20th Century Fox did not screen last night, but Walt Disney’s period sea disaster film The Finest Hours and Open Road’s Fifty Shades of Black did. Disney is reporting $375K in Thursday preview B.O. last night for the Chris Pine-Casey Affleck-Ben Foster-Eric Bana ensemble pic, while Open Road/IM Global’s satire Fifty Shades of Black grossed $275K.
Finest Hours B.O. yesterday is slightly better than McFarland which made $260K and turned in a $11M opening ($44.5M stateside cume) and Million Dollar Arm which drew $250K and a $10.5M FSS (final domestic $36.5M). The film directed by Craig Gillespie carries an estimated production cost of $80M. The New York Times reports that post-production took a year as the director tried to get the waves correct with 1K VFK shots.
It will be a while before we get a sense of how well Kung Fu Panda 3 will be doing: Only 4% of K-12 schools are out today, and animated family films show their mettle in Saturday matinees. The first Kung Fu Panda posted an opening day of $20.3M and the second one inclusive of a $5.8M Thursday did $18.9M, however, that was made off the backs of summer moviegoers.
Fifty Shades of Black was financed by IM Global for an estimated $5M. The previous Marlon Wayans collaboration, the A Haunted House comedy series with director Michael Tiddes and scribe Rick Alvarez, racked up $84M worldwide across two films, with each costing between $2.5M-$4M before P&A.
B.O. analysts expect both The Finest Hours and Fifty Shades of Black to open to $10M-$11M in a marketplace that will be thawed by Kung Fu Panda 3 with a FSS in the $40M range.
Yesterday, 20th Century Fox/New Regency’s The Revenant topped the B.O. charts with $1.5M and a running cume prior to its sixth sesh of $125.8M.
Disney’s Star Wars: Force Awakens was third with $1.3M and a six week cume of $884.6M. Episode VII will cross the nine-century mark late next week. Last night, New York’s famed Ziegfeld Theatre dropped its red curtain for the final time after 46 years following the 10PM showtime for the J.J. Abrams movie. The midtown Ziegfeld is (was) Manhattan’s last remaining single screen. Last week it was reported that the theater was losing $1M a year and that Cablevision was released from its longtime lease on the venue by landlord Fisher Brothers, who found a new tenant. The new occupants, who operate Gotham Hall on West 36th Street, will unveil the Ziegfeld Ballroom in the fall of 2017, which will include a 10,000-square-foot ballroom as well as mezzanine meeting rooms. So there’s a chance that film premieres will live on there.
Lionsgate’s Dirty Grandpa was pulling up third yesterday with $950K and a first week’s cume of $15.2M.
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